JASMA

A business plan is basically a confident prediction about a future that has not read your plan.
That’s not an insultit's the job description. Your plan has to make bets: who will buy, how you’ll reach them,
what they’ll pay, what it’ll cost, and how long you can stay alive while reality “provides feedback” (politely,
with a chair to the face).

The difference between a plan that helps and a plan that becomes an expensive PDF is simple:
do you treat assumptions like facts… or like hypotheses that deserve cross-examination?
This guide shows you how to find the load-bearing assumptions in your business plan, rank them by risk,
and test them quicklywithout turning your life into a never-ending spreadsheet opera.

What “Assumptions” Really Means (And Why They’re Sneaky)

Assumptions are the things your plan must believe in order to work. Some are obvious (your product has customers),
and some hide inside “reasonable” phrases like we expect, should, project, and the classic:
conservatively, we will capture 5% of the market. (Nothing says “conservative” like claiming a chunk of a market
you haven’t met yet.)

Common categories of business plan assumptions

• Customer assumptions: who the buyer is, what pain they feel, and how urgently they want it solved.
• Market assumptions: market size, growth, timing, and whether the market is reachable.
• Value assumptions: why you’re meaningfully better than alternatives and why that matters.
• Go-to-market assumptions: which channels work, how long sales take, and who actually signs the check.
• Pricing assumptions: willingness to pay, discounting pressure, and how price affects conversion.
• Cost assumptions: COGS, labor, fulfillment, returns, chargebacks, compliance, and the “oops” costs.
• Unit economics assumptions: CAC, LTV, churn/retention, gross margin, payback period.
• Operational assumptions: capacity, hiring timelines, vendor reliability, and execution speed.
• Risk assumptions: regulations, seasonality, competition reactions, supply shocks, platform changes.

If you’re thinking, “That’s a lot,” congratulationsyou’ve discovered why assumptions deserve attention.
A plan isn’t wrong because it has assumptions. It’s wrong because nobody checked them.

The Assumption Audit: Find the Load-Bearing Beliefs

Start by hunting assumptions the same way you’d hunt for a squeaky floorboard in a new apartment: step everywhere.
Read your plan and highlight anything that’s a number, a timeline, a conversion rate, a percentage, or a confident statement
about humans. Then rewrite each one as a testable sentence.

Turn “plan language” into test language

• “Customers will love it” → “At least 30% of interviewed target users rank this problem as top-3 painful.”
• “Marketing will be via social media” → “We can acquire leads at <$8 per lead with a 10% landing-page conversion rate.”
• “We’ll be profitable in year one” → “Gross margin stays above 55% while CAC payback is under 4 months.”

Use an Assumption Table (steal this format)

Put assumptions in one place so they stop freelancing across your plan.
Here’s a simple template you can paste into a doc or spreadsheet:

This table also prevents a common business-plan tragedy: polishing the plan while the assumptions quietly set it on fire.

Prioritize: The “Riskiest, Earliest” Rule

Not all assumptions deserve equal attention. Some are minor; some are the Jenga blocks holding your entire model up.
The goal is to identify the assumptions that are both high impact (if wrong, the plan breaks)
and high uncertainty (you don’t have real evidence yet).

A simple scoring method

1. Impact: If this is false, do we still have a business? (Score 1–5)
2. Uncertainty: How sure are we, based on real proof? (Score 1–5)
3. Speed-to-test: Can we test it in days/weeks, not months? (Score 1–5, where higher = faster)

Then prioritize assumptions with high impact + high uncertainty, especially if they’re fast to test.
That’s how you avoid spending six months perfecting features for customers who do not exist.

How to Test Assumptions Fast (Without a Hollywood Budget)

Testing assumptions doesn’t mean launching a full product. It means designing small experiments that produce
honest signals. The trick is to test the right thing at the right stage:
desirability (do they want it?), feasibility (can we build/deliver it?),
and viability (can it make money?).

1) Market research and competitive reality checks

Before you interview a single human, do basic market research: industry size, customer segments,
purchasing patterns, and competitors’ offers. The goal isn’t to “prove” your planit’s to stop believing
obviously wrong things early. If your competitors are everywhere, your differentiation must be specific.
If competitors don’t exist, double-check whether the problem is real or just not worth solving.

2) Customer discovery interviews (the non-cringey way)

Customer interviews go sideways when you pitch. Don’t pitch. Ask about the problem, current workflows,
past attempts to solve it, budgets, and what “doing nothing” costs them. The gold is in concrete stories:
“Tell me about the last time this happened.” Then listen for urgency, frequency, and consequences.

• Bad question: “Would you use an app that does X?” (People will be polite.)
• Better: “How do you solve X today?” (Reality answers.)
• Best: “What did it cost you the last time X happened?” (Now you’re talking money.)

3) Smoke tests: measure behavior, not compliments

A smoke test is when you present an offer before building it and measure what people do.
Examples include a landing page with a “Request access” button, a waitlist, a demo signup,
a downloadable sample, or even a pre-order (where appropriate). You’re testing:
can you attract attention from the right audience, and do they take a meaningful action?

4) Concierge MVPs and scrappy prototypes

If your plan depends on delivering a result (not just a feature), do a concierge MVP: deliver manually to a few customers.
It’s slower than software but faster than guessing. You learn what customers actually value, what they ignore,
where they get stuck, and what they’ll pay forbefore you invest in automation.

5) Pricing tests that don’t lie (as much)

Pricing is a top-tier assumption because it drives everything elsemarketing budget, staffing, margins, runway.
The safest approach is progressive validation:
start with interview-based ranges and budget signals, then test real offers (even limited ones),
and watch conversion. If people love the problem and hate the price, your plan just found its first truth.

Financial Assumptions: Where Dreams Go to Become Math

Financial projections don’t fail because founders are bad at math. They fail because the inputs are vibes.
Good projections document assumptions clearly, tie them to evidence, and show what happens when reality moves.

Build from drivers, not from “Year 3 hockey-stick energy”

Instead of “We’ll do $2M in revenue in Year 3,” define the drivers:
number of leads → conversion rate → customers → average revenue per customer → churn/retention.
The more your model is driver-based, the easier it is to test assumptions and update the plan.

Sensitivity analysis: find the assumptions that matter most

Sensitivity analysis asks: “If this input changes, how much does the outcome change?”
In plain English: which assumption is the drama queen of your model?
Try changing one input at a timeprice, conversion rate, CAC, churn, gross marginand see what breaks.

Scenario planning: stop betting your company on one future

Create three scenarios:
Base case (most likely), downside case (worse-than-expected), and
upside case (better-than-expected). Then define what would make you move between scenarios:
a specific metric, not a feeling.

A quick example (with numbers that behave)

Imagine a subscription service for small gyms that automates member renewals.
Your plan assumes:
$199/month, 5% monthly churn, $600 CAC, and
60% gross margin.

• Base case LTV (rough): $199 × 60% margin = $119 contribution/month. With 5% churn, average lifetime ≈ 20 months → LTV ≈ $2,380.
• Looks great… until: churn is actually 10% (average lifetime ≈ 10 months) → LTV ≈ $1,190.
• Now your CAC payback: $600 / $119 ≈ 5 months (base), but if churn is higher and upsells don’t happen, you may never earn back CAC in cash terms.

The “business plan assumption” you should test first might not be the softwareit might be churn drivers
(do gyms stick around?) or channel CAC (can you consistently acquire them for $600?).

Do a Pre-Mortem to Beat Optimism Bias

Teams are naturally optimistic. It’s basically a requirement for starting anything hard.
A pre-mortem gives that optimism a seatbelt: you imagine the project failed, then list plausible reasons why.
This tends to surface hidden assumptions and risks that people were too polite (or too excited) to mention.

How to run a pre-mortem in 30–45 minutes

1. Set the scene: “It’s 12 months from now. This plan failed.”
2. Everyone writes reasons silently for 5–10 minutes.
3. Share and cluster reasons (market, pricing, channel, team, operations, competition, cash).
4. Translate clusters into assumptions and tests.
5. Assign owners and deadlines for the top 3 risks.

You’ll notice many pre-mortem reasons match real-world startup failure patterns:
building something the market didn’t need, running out of cash, or failing to reach customers efficiently.
Your business plan improves dramatically when it stops pretending these are “other people problems.”

Build Assumption Testing Into Your Business Plan (So It Stays Alive)

The best business plan is not the one that predicts perfectlyit’s the one that updates quickly.
Make your plan a living system:

• Track assumptions: keep a visible list and revisit monthly or quarterly.
• Define leading indicators: pipeline, activation, retention signals, repeat usagenot just revenue.
• Set “learning milestones”: “Complete 20 interviews,” “Run $300 channel test,” “Close 5 pilots.”
• Write decision rules: “If CAC > $X for 3 tests, we pivot channel,” not “we’ll see how it feels.”

A mini checklist you can use today

1. List your top 15 assumptions in one place.
2. Circle the 3 that could kill the plan fastest if wrong.
3. Design one fast test per circled assumption.
4. Define a pass/fail metric before running the test.
5. Update the plan with results (yes, even if they hurt your feelings).

Experiences From the Assumption Trenches ( of Reality, Served Warm)

If you talk to enough founders, operators, mentors, and small business owners, you start to notice a pattern:
most “surprises” were actually assumptions that never got interrogated. Here are a few common scenariosbased on
what teams regularly run intoshowing how questioning assumptions can save months (and, occasionally, your sanity).

Experience #1: “Our customer” wasn’t one personit was three

A B2B services company assumed the end user would also be the buyer. Interviews went great: users loved the idea,
nodded enthusiastically, and even requested features. The plan looked soliduntil sales started and deals stalled.
Why? The buyer was finance, the user was operations, and the gatekeeper was IT. Each cared about different outcomes:
finance wanted predictable cost, ops wanted speed, IT wanted security and low maintenance. The original plan assumed
one decision-maker and a two-week sales cycle. Reality required multi-stakeholder buy-in and a 60–90 day cycle.
Once they updated that assumption, they changed the go-to-market motion: a tighter ROI pitch for finance, a pilot
for ops, and a security checklist upfront for IT. Same service, radically different planand suddenly sales became
a process instead of a mystery novel.

Experience #2: The channel worked… until it scaled

An e-commerce brand found a winning paid social ad with an attractive CAC at small spend. The plan confidently
projected scaling spend 10× with similar results. That assumption is adorable. As spend increased, CAC rose,
frequency climbed, and the algorithm started serving the ad to less-qualified audiences. Returns increased too,
because the “broader audience” included more impulse buyers. The fix wasn’t “ads are bad”it was building a model
where CAC is a curve, not a constant. They introduced scenario planning: at higher spend, CAC rises by X–Y%.
They also diversified channels (affiliate, email, partnerships) so the plan didn’t depend on one platform behaving forever.

Experience #3: Pricing wasn’t about valueit was about procurement gravity

A startup priced a tool at $49/user/month because that’s what similar tools charged. Interviews suggested it was fair.
But the real assumption wasn’t willingness to payit was how buyers purchase. At $49/user, the annual contract
crossed an internal approval threshold, triggering procurement, legal review, and security assessment. The plan assumed
“self-serve” and got “committee theater.” They tested an alternate packaging assumption: a smaller starter tier under
the approval threshold, plus an annual plan for larger teams. The result: faster adoption, clearer expansion paths,
and a sales process that matched reality.

Experience #4: “We can hire fast” is not a strategy

Many plans assume hiring is a simple timeline: post job → hire great person → instantly productive. In practice,
time-to-hire stretches, onboarding takes longer than expected, and the “great person” still needs context and systems.
When teams question this assumption, they often shift to operational tests: can we deliver the service profitably with
today’s team? What processes can we standardize before scaling headcount? Which roles are genuinely critical-path?
The plan becomes less about optimistic staffing charts and more about building a machine that can accept new people
without breaking.

The point of these experiences isn’t to scare youit’s to give you permission to treat your plan like a scientific instrument.
When you question assumptions early, you don’t become “less confident.” You become more accurate, which is the kind of
confidence investors, partners, and future-you actually enjoy.

Closing Thoughts: Make Your Plan Strong Enough to Be Wrong

“Questioning key assumptions in your business plan” isn’t negativityit’s leadership. It’s the choice to replace
guessing with learning, and to turn your plan into a tool that adapts as reality changes. List the assumptions,
rank the riskiest, test them fast, and update your plan without drama.

Because the goal isn’t to write the perfect plan. The goal is to build a business that survives first contact with the real world.